Money Management
It’s all about the UNITS! Following the unit structure is how YOU will maintain positive cash flow while using GoldStandardPicks.com. For example, if you play a single game and your maximum bet is $600, your unit amount would be $100 per unit. If today’s play was 4 units you would wager a total of $400 on the game. If the unit number was 6 or Lenny’s “Best Bet” the $100 per unit player would be wagering the maximum amount of $600. Following the unit system keeps you inside your betting limit and over time will keep you in the BLACK! Let me show you an example of how the unit structure works. A current member is a $100 per unit player and over a one week period wins 8 games and loses 7 games. Because the 8 wins were all played at 4 units ($400 bet) and the 7 losses were all played at 1 unit ($100 bet) the member won $3200 and lost $770 (including 10% juice) netting $2430. That’s right the member still managed to win over $2400 going 8 and 7 on the week. Compare that to someone who plays $400 on each of the 14 games posting the same 8 and 6 record over a week. That person would have won $3200 and lost $3080 (including 10% juice) netting only $120. What looks better in your bank account $120 or $2430? That’s what I thought! Remember to follow the unit structure each and every play.
Basketball 101
The NBA is a tough eight-month grind, similar to baseball. That means riding hot streaks as well as cold ones, and managing your bankroll carefully, are all very important over this long period of time.
Bet a little more (about 10%) when winning, but don't get too cocky. When losing, scale back a bit until you start to win again.
Having the right feel for the NBA is huge. It's developed through experience, watching the games, analyzing player strengths and weaknesses and understanding situational aspects. These include, but are not limited to, road trips, teams being played next, injuries and home court advantage.
When we mention "teams being played next," we are referring to the fact that teams look ahead and past who they're playing on a given night and occasionally "look ahead" to the next opponent, especially if it's one of the NBA glamour teams such as the Warriors, Spurs, Thunder or Cavaliers. Watch out for coaches who rest their better players on a given night so they'll be fresh and ready to go against one of those glamour teams, or against a particular rival.
As there are only about 5 to 7 NBA teams in a given season with a winning road record, it's very important to keep track of who are the better road teams as well as how long any particular team is away from home. Seeing a team playing its fourth straight road game and also playing Denver or Utah ... two teams who play "at altitude" is a red flag pointing to a loss. Near the end of the 2010 season, in fact, Boston was playing its fourth straight road game at Denver and a tired Celtics team got beaten badly by the Nuggets.
Because of the long NBA season, there will be short windows of opportunity to take advantage of inside information, such as a key player unexpectedly not being in the lineup because of injury, suspension or other personal reasons.
Of course, totals on games can always be played. Determining factors here include team match-ups and which teams are more or less committed to playing good defense. The totals' line, will, of course, reflect the public's perception of the teams' offensive and defensive abilities. The total, for example, is set much higher when two bad defensive teams like Chicago and Charlotte play one another, than when two good defensive teams like Dallas and Toronto meet.
Finally, getting in touch with the rhythm of the NBA takes time. Studying player match-ups and coaching styles are very important factors when determining who to bet on in any NBA game. The bottom line with the NBA is to keep plugging, exploit hot streaks, yours and any particular teams, take advantage of any inside information when available and lay low while wagering less during the inevitable cold spells. The NBA can be beaten, but not by impatient and greedy gamblers. Be smart when handicapping the NBA, bet with your head, not over it.
College basketball picks from GoldStandardPicks.com give college hoops fans the edge during March Madness. Our NCAA Picks have selected the March Madness winner for the past three years.
College basketball is similar to college football in that the "big name" teams seem to get the bulk of the public's play most of the time. NCAA teams like Duke, Kansas, Memphis, North Carolina, Arizona and UCLA get the bettors' "Love" and the lines on those college basketball teams usually run 2 to 5 points more than they should really be. The value is simply not there.
There are simply so many NCAA basketball games, usually 70 to 85 on a college basketball Saturday, that it's difficult for oddsmakers to make accurate numbers on every game. They make mistakes and those mistakes are usually on what we call "no-name" teams.
When NCAA March Madness conference play begins, it's important to see who these teams played earlier. Did they play cupcakes to bolster their records or did they play tough opponents to better prepare them for a tough conference season? As teams play each other on a home-and-home basis, look to see who has the edge at home and whether or not one team has an advantage.
Does one team dominate the series or not? Revenge and rivalries play an important part in NCAA conference play. Watching the attitude of teams both in tight games and in blowouts toward conference rivals is important. Players and coaches have long memories with regard to who "stuck it to them" or who just ran out the clock in a blowout situation. No one likes to have the score run up needlessly against them. We watch these situations very carefully.
Before March Madness begins, we'll give you some factors to consider around tournament time. Our March Madness picks have proven to be the best college basketball picks around. Our NCAA Picks have selected the winner 3 years in a row.
Football 101
Bettors generally look to wager on teams based on the point spread (Spread Line), or on a team without laying or getting points where odds are involved, called the (money line).They also play the total number of points scored by both teams in a game (totals play, often called the "over" or "under" in a game).
"POINT SPREAD" WAGER
Oddsmakers look to set a line or spread so that an equal number of players bet on each side of the game. They're happy winning the "juice" involved on the losing plays and calling it a profitable day. The Juice on a Point Spread wager is usually -110. For Example, to win $200.00 dollars, one must risk $220.00. With that in mind, the line is set to even things out between opposing teams.
The "LINE" is the actual point spread set by the Las Vegas oddsmakers that indicates the relative strength of the two teams playing. It is set to equalize a game when one team is better than another. For example, if the Miami Dolphins were +10 points or getting 10 points added to their score against the Pittsburgh Steelers, the oddsmakers are telling you they believe the Steelers are 10 points better than the Dolphins in the public's mind. Giving them 10 points makes it an even game. The public then moves the line by the amount they wager on one side or the other. If a lot of money comes in on the Steelers, the points will go up to entice more bettors to take the Dolphins with more points. The reverse is true if more money comes in on the Dolphins. The point spread or "LINE" will go down to get more bettors to take the Steelers, but give fewer points to the Dolphins.
There are many factors one must consider before actually putting down his or her hard-earned money on a team. Is the team at home or on the road? What injuries, if any, will factor into the performance of a team? How do the teams match up offensively and defensively with each other? This is probably the hardest thing for an average person without the time to invest in researching the information to know. Which team plays better on special teams and has the better kicker? What is the weather like? Some teams, like Green Bay and New England, play well in bad weather. Some teams like Miami and San Diego, do not. Near the end of a season is a team vying for a playoff spot or has it already locked in its position? These are just some of the factors one must consider before making a wager.
Baseball 101
Baseball doesn't get the attention of the faster-paced sports like football and basketball, but it shouldn't be overlooked. In fact, building up a nice bankroll over the 6-month baseball season prior to the start of the more popular football season makes a lot of sense.
Baseball can be bet in many ways: moneylines, runlines and totals.
In baseball the moneyline is most frequently played. Basically you are simply picking the winner of the game. The "line" you pay is based on the starting pitchers, location of the game (do you have the home or away team) and the strength of the teams involved. Consideration must be made to certain teams known as "public teams," the public seems to play no matter what the line is. These teams include the Yankees, Dodgers and Red Sox, but there are others.
For example, if the Yankees were at home and their best pitcher in the public's mind, C.C. Sabbathia, were starting against Baltimore and Baltimore's worst pitcher was starting, the line would be very high, say around -230 if you were to take the Yankees. If two evenly-matched teams like the Red Sox and Tampa were playing and both teams had their best pitchers starting, the moneyline would probably favor the home team by about -120; a fairly even contest.
Betting big favorites (teams favored by -200 or more) is very dangerous to play because if you lose one of those games, you will lose $200 for the $100 you might win on the game. That means you have to win 2 games just to make up for that one loss. That's bad money management, so try to avoid too much of that during the season. A good rule of thumb when betting baseball moneylines is to bet games that are -150 or less.
The runline is when you create a "line" of 1 1/2 runs on a game and then choose to either give or take the runs. For example; last week, Atlanta with its best pitcher, was a big moneyline favorite (-215) over Philadelphia. However, if you bet Atlanta with its best pitcher on the runline, you would have had to win the game by 2 runs but only given up -115 instead of -215.
In other words, you were risking only $115 to win the $100 rather than $215! Atlanta won the game 10-4 as it turned out, but a bettor had a lot less at risk. If Atlanta won by only one run, you would have lost the bet. Run lines are best played when a heavy favorite with a good pitcher is going against lesser competition.
Keep in mind that you can take the 1 1/2 runs and play the underdog if you prefer. However, in this case you pay a higher price for that cushion, but in many cases there isn't as much value in the play.
Besides picking the side in a baseball game, one can play over or under the total number of runs that will be scored in a game. The listed total is what the odds makers believe will be the approximate number of runs scored by both teams. A bettor may feel that two good offensive teams may go over the total, depending on who is pitching or he may feel a game will go under the total because two good pitchers are going against weaker offensive teams.
Baseball is a lot of fun to bet on because so many statistics are kept and so much is riding on the pitchers of both teams. Remain aware of streaking and slumping teams. Don't play too many big favorites, keep alert for line changes during the day and be aware as you are in football and basketball about injuries to key players and you should do fine during this baseball season.